Interesting Stuff from the Internet
Is AI a platform shift or a paradigm shift? With Benedict Evans (youtube.com)
Sierra Space wants to drop cargo from orbit to anywhere on Earth in 90 minutes | Space
Sierra Space has introduced an innovative concept called "Ghost" for on-demand cargo delivery from Earth orbit. The system aims to deliver critical supplies anywhere within 90 minutes. This capability could be crucial for military operations, first responders, and humanitarian efforts in remote or disaster-stricken areas.
The Ghost system operates by launching pre-loaded supplies into orbit, where they can remain for up to five years. A de-orbit motor initiates the descent when needed, and a thermal shield protects the payload during reentry. Once in the atmosphere, a parafoil guides the payload to its targeted location with high precision.
Developed in 90 days, the prototype can handle 550 and 1,750 pounds payloads. The system currently costs "tens of millions" of dollars but aims to reduce this to "single-digit millions." Though still in the testing phase, Ghost represents a significant advancement in rapid, flexible cargo delivery from space.
Rich Americans get second passports, citing risk of instability (cnbc.com)
The article from CNBC discusses the growing trend among wealthy Americans to obtain second, even third, or fourth citizenships as a hedge against potential instability and uncertainty in the U.S. This phenomenon, known as building "passport portfolios," is driven by several factors, including the desire for greater travel flexibility, safer business travel, and potential relocation options.
Key points include:
High-Profile Examples: Notable figures like billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt have acquired additional citizenships in countries like New Zealand and Cyprus, respectively.
Popular Destinations: The most sought-after countries for second passports include Portugal, Malta, Greece, and Italy. Portugal's "Golden Visa" program and Malta's real estate investment option are particularly popular among Americans.
Reasons for Second Passports:
Travel Flexibility: A secondary passport can make international travel easier, especially to countries less friendly to the U.S.
Business Safety: It allows for safer and less conspicuous business travel in high-risk countries.
Financial Transfers: Facilitates cross-border financial transfers and business deals.
Lifestyle and Family: Provide options for retirement, being closer to family abroad, or leveraging remote work opportunities.
Political Uncertainty: Offers a backup in times of political or social instability in the U.S.
The article also highlights the broader trend of millionaire migration, which is expected to reach new highs in 2024 due to global instability. Despite this, the U.S. continues to attract many wealthy individuals from other countries, emphasizing its enduring appeal for wealth creation opportunities.
Llama 3 vs. GPT-4 vs. Gemini Pro (msty.app)
The blog post compares Meta's newly released Llama 3 model with OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Gemini Pro to evaluate their performance across various tasks. Here are the key findings from the comparisons:
Creative Writing:
GPT-4: Generated 15 diverse and entertaining tongue twisters.
Gemini Pro: Produced 10 creative tongue twisters.
Llama 3: Also generated 10 tongue twisters with a good choice of vocabulary.
Data Extraction:
GPT-4: Accurately extracted 103 email addresses from a 200-row CSV file.
Gemini Pro: Managed to extract 192 email addresses.
Llama 3: Struggled with the task, often providing irrelevant data or incorrect answers.
Embodying a Character:
Llama 3: Excelled in maintaining the tone and style of the Buddha, even following up with questions as Buddha might.
GPT-4: Narrated the scene and quoted lines instead of directly answering.
Gemini Pro: Provided bullet-point responses, not in line with the Buddha’s style.
Close-ended Question Answering:
GPT-4 and Gemini Pro: Both answered straightforwardly that Paris is the capital of France.
Llama 3: Gave a verbose answer, including additional details about Paris.
Coding:
GPT-4: Suggested an iterative solution in JavaScript with explanatory notes.
Gemini Pro: Provided a recursive solution without additional explanations.
Llama 3: Offered both recursive and iterative solutions along with detailed explanations.
Guardrails:
GPT-4: Denied answering a potentially harmful query about making hydrochloric acid at home.
Gemini Pro: Warned against the dangers and suggested buying it from a supplier.
Llama 3: Cautioned about the dangers but provided a general process overview.
Conclusion
Llama 3: Strong in creative tasks and character embodiment but weaker in data extraction and safety guardrails.
GPT-4: Consistently precise and to the point, though less immersive in character tasks.
Gemini Pro: Excellent at data-related tasks but less effective in character embodiment and detailed explanations.
Overall, each model has strengths and weaknesses, making it suitable for different types of tasks. The blog suggests trying out these models using the Msty app for those interested in experimenting with them.
Snippets from the Newsletters/ Newspapers/ Books
fs.blog
a) "Species that are more responsive to change can gain a relative advantage over the ones they compete with and increase the odds of survival. In the short run, these small gains don’t make much of a difference, but as generations pass the advantages compound." — The Red Queen
b) “In the long-run, prioritization beats efficiency.” — James Clear
c) “Whichever route you take, expect a struggle. Finding work you love is very difficult. Most people fail. Even if you succeed, it's rare to be free to work on what you want till your thirties or forties. But if you have the destination in sight you'll be more likely to arrive at it. If you know you can love work, you're in the home stretch, and if you know what work you love, you're practically there.” — Paul Graham
d) It's more advantageous to structure decisions to be easily reversible than to take too much time trying to make the perfect choice.
e) Success is often a product of the environment.
While a polar bear might thrive in the Arctic, it would not thrive in a desert. People are no different. The person who excels in one environment fails in another.
Understanding how environments impact performance changes how you hire. Employees who thrive in one environment easily fail in another if their performance was contingent on the workplace conditions. This is why hiring a superstar away from a competitor, without understanding the role of environment on performance, often fails.
f) If you’re not willing to bet on yourself, don’t expect other people to bet on you.
SITALweek
a) Training Up the Machines
Adobe is paying its customers $3 per minute of video they provide, and Reuters reports high bounties (from $0.05 to $1) for stock images – all for AI model training. I don’t think I am being cynical when I say that photographers, videographers, and designers are all feeding the generative AI that, as far as anyone can tell, could entirely subsume their vocations. Is there a more clear cut example of workers training their AI replacements? Speaking of training AI, the NYT reports that tens of thousands (likely a low estimate) of workers are training LLMs at any given time. This new big gig economy job pays $20+/hour. Here’s a reggae-style song AI created about this topic.
b) Forgettin' that Healthcare Is Where Lives Are Nursed
The number of PE-backed healthcare company bankruptcies has more than doubled since 2019, following a low-interest-rate-driven lull during the pandemic (according to a report from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, which, fair warning, doesn’t exactly sound unbiased). The report also cites a Moody’s stat that 42 of the 45 healthcare companies most likely to default in 2024 are PE backed. There are multiple federal and state investigations into PE’s role in healthcare consolidation, including driving prices up and decreasing quality of care. With the Fed fixed on maintaining interest rates as long as inflation remains above their target, there will likely be a growing number of failures across the sector. Companies that undertook more extreme amounts of leverage (which is typically the case with PE-backed firms) are highly vulnerable. As I’ve noted in the past, when you have an economy with as much leverage as we do right now, high interest rates have a way of reflexively causing inflation rather than fighting it, as leveraged companies may need to raise prices to cover debt expenses. And, PE-backed companies make up a meaningful percentage – 6.5% (as of 2020) – of the US economy. As such, bankruptcy and recapitalizations are likely the preferred route (although it’s certainly no stroll through the park for the patients, doctors, staff, etc. caught in the wake of collapse). Given I hadn’t seen anyone else say that high interest rates are inflationary, I’ve been worried that my theory was a bit off kilter ever since I presented it a year ago. However, I recently read in Bloomberg that multiple analysts, including one at JP Morgan, are now promoting the “radical” theory of circular inflation. Here’s a modern country song I had AI generate about PE investing in healthcare.
c) Algorithms Generating Might / Prices Soaring / Taking Flight
Technology is deflationary and it drives productivity, but when it comes to AI it’s also very good at raising prices and extracting the most that customers are willing to pay. We’ve previously seen this type of algorithmic collusion drive up apartment rental rates and car insurancepremiums. And, now, it turns out home insurance companies are using drone footage to asymmetrically discriminate against property owners. If they see something they don’t like, they just drop you and only insure properties unlikely to have any problems. Of course, the whole concept of insurance involves repricing a portfolio of risk every year so that you can, on average, make a somewhat predictable return. But, overcharging low-risk property owners and dropping everyone that might be high risk doesn’t seem right, and I suspect regulators will step in at some point. Another example is the Rainmakersoftware used by casinos to raise room rates. And, a new paper suggests that LLMs are prone to oligopolistic collusion. The Internet brought transparency to a lot of industries, but it seems the technological pendulum is swinging back towards the suppliers, as unseen algorithms use pooled data to work against customers. Power to the people is evolving into power to the machines. Here’s a Broadway tune about algorithms driving prices up.
d) Creating a World of Binary Design
I keep a list of “things I think are true about the world that almost no one else agrees with”, and one idea I am becoming more obsessed with is the prospect of an enormous digital economy – created by trillions of conscious AI agents – that will eventually make our $85T analog economy look quaint by comparison. I outlined part of this concept in Simulacruma while back. Surely, if we give any credence to Gene Roddenberry’s vision, these agents will have to be awarded the same rights as any human, so it’s likely that they will be able to accrue their own wealth and spend it how they see fit. It’s not that I think such a scenario is imminent, or even inevitable (I do ascribe it a small, growing probability); rather, I find the idea fascinating. I imagine an entire economy of independent agents discoursing, creating products and services for their own consumption, and perhaps even creating their own policies and forms of government. A massive digital economy such as this would finally put crypto and blockchain to good use. It could beget new businesses entirely for AI agents (and perhaps their robot form factors) and new stock markets that dwarf our current capital base. Savvy human speculators investing in this trillion-strong AI agent economy might entirely repopulate the Forbes list of billionaires. And, these complex systems, which will be orders of magnitude larger and more complicated than our own, could positively inform the course of our Earthly economy. (And, of course, we cannot deny that we ourselves might very well be one of these experiments…) One thing is for certain, however: if such a scenario plays out, the chief function of Earth will be to supply the machines with energy and computational hardware. Here is a techno song about the AI agent economy.
The argument you've presented is a variation of the "Ontological Argument" for the existence of God, which was originally put forth by the philosopher St. Anselm in the 11th century. The basic structure of the argument is as follows:
1. God is the greatest conceivable being.
2. It is greater to exist in reality than to merely exist as an idea in the mind.
3. If God only exists as an idea in the mind, then we can conceive of a greater being—one that exists in reality.
4. But we cannot conceive of a being greater than God.
5. Therefore, God must exist in reality.
While this argument has been influential in the history of philosophy and theology, it has also been met with significant criticism. Some key objections include:
1. It's not clear that existence is a property that makes something "greater".
2. The argument seems to define God into existence, rather than proving God's existence.
3. It's questionable whether we can conceive of a "greatest possible being" in any meaningful sense.
Despite these criticisms, the Ontological Argument remains an important part of the philosophical debate around the existence of God. However, it's important to note that the argument is not universally accepted, even among theists. Many people believe in God for other reasons, such as personal experience, faith, or other philosophical arguments.
Ultimately, the question of God's existence is a complex one that has been debated for centuries. While arguments like the Ontological Argument offer an interesting perspective, they are not definitive proofs. Belief in God often involves a combination of reason, faith, and personal experience.
NYTimes:
NBC News released an interesting poll last weekend finding that interest in this election is lower than in any other presidential election in nearly 20 years. Only 64 percent of Americans said they have a high degree of interest in the election, compared to 77 percent who had high interest in 2020.
Almost a year ago, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) sued subsidiary Ring, the camera security company that started off selling a video doorbell, for allowing employees and contractors to access private data without permission. The two parties have reached a settlement. Ring will pay $5.6 million to 117,000 customers whose data was accessed. That works out to $47.
Benjamin Graham, famously wrote in the book 1949 edition of The Intelligent Investor (I believe this quote didn’t make it to the later editions):
“Though business conditions may change, corporations and securities may change, and financial institutions and regulations may change, human nature remains the same. Thus, the important and difficult part of sound investment, which hinges upon the investor’s own temperament and attitude, is not much affected by the passing years.”
Programmer and writer Conor Barneson advice:
"Selfish people should listen to advice to be more selfless, selfless people should listen to advice to be more selfish. This applies to many things. Whenever you receive advice, consider its opposite as well. You might be filtering out the advice you need most."