“In disputes upon moral or scientific points, let your aim be to come at truth, not to conquer your opponent. So you never shall be at a loss in losing the argument, and gaining a new discovery.”
Arthur Martine
The paradox of Science and uncertainty - Vaughn Tan
Vaughn Tan's essay, "The Paradox of Science and Uncertainty," explores how the advancements in science, while extending human life and increasing our control over the world, have paradoxically made it harder for us to cope with uncertainty. Tan distinguishes between risk and uncertainty, noting that while the risk is calculable and manageable, uncertainty remains uncharted and discomforting. He argues that the scientific method has fostered a belief in the myth of general control, making us more intolerant of uncertainty.
Key Points
Distinction Between Risk and Uncertainty:
Risk: Known and manageable; involves calculable probabilities.
Uncertainty: Unknown and inherently unmanageable; induces discomfort and fear.
Impact of Science on Life Expectancy and Control:
Science has significantly increased life expectancy over the past 150 years.
This increase in life expectancy means people have more future to worry about, intensifying fear of the unknown.
Science and the Myth of General Control:
Science has given humans a powerful belief in their ability to control the world by understanding causal mechanisms.
This belief extends to a general myth that everything can be controlled through scientific understanding.
Negative Consequences of the Myth of Control:
The belief in general control makes uncertainty feel more unacceptable.
This heightened intolerance toward uncertainty makes it harder for people to think clearly about it, embrace it, or use it strategically.
Key Quotes
On Risk vs. Uncertainty:
"With risk, we know almost everything there is to know about what we don’t know. Which is why risk is calculable and manageable."
On Life Expectancy and Future Fear:
"Someone born in the 2020s (life expectancy ~70 years) has twice as much future to think about than someone born in 1900 (life expectancy ~32 years). Fear of an uncertain future becomes more intense as the youthful delusion of invincibility fades with each passing year."
On the Myth of General Control:
"Science also implicitly promises us that it can potentially be applied to understanding how anything and everything works — it creates a myth of general control."
On the Consequences of Control Beliefs:
"Uncertainty feels more unacceptable when you’re told (and you believe) in the myth of general control."
Why It Matters
Tan's essay is significant because it addresses a critical paradox in modern society. While scientific advancements have undeniably improved human life, they have also fostered an unrealistic expectation of control over the future. This expectation makes it difficult for people to deal with uncertainty, an unavoidable aspect of life. By highlighting the difference between risk and uncertainty and the psychological impact of the myth of control, Tan encourages reevaluating how we approach and relate to the unknown. Understanding this paradox is crucial for developing better strategies to manage uncertainty on an individual and societal level.
Language is a Bottleneck for Thought - Aether Mug
The article "Language is a Bottleneck for Thought" by Marco Giancotti, published on April 25, 2024, explores the limitations of language in conveying thoughts and emotions. Giancotti argues that language's inherent structure and shared nature force us to simplify and abstract our complex mental models, often losing nuance and detail. The article discusses how our mental models and frameworks shape our understanding and communication and addresses strategies for mitigating the bottleneck caused by language. Ultimately, the piece suggests that while language has limitations, it is still a valuable tool for sharing knowledge and ideas.
Key Points
Mental Models and Framings:
Mental Models: These are systems that predict future events by simplifying reality. They help us navigate the world by abstracting unnecessary details.
Framings are choices of boundaries and interactions within mental models. They dictate what details are ignored and what are considered important.
The Fundamental Framing of Human Language (FFHL):
Language has built-in framing. When we convert our thoughts into words, we must map our framings into the shared vocabulary, often resulting in a lossy conversion.
Challenges in Communication:
Context and Purpose: Effective communication depends on the speaker and listener sharing a common context and purpose.
Loss of Nuance: Due to language limitations, describing complex experiences, like pizza taste, often fails to capture their true essence.
Strategies to Mitigate Language Bottleneck:
Increasing Resolution: Adding more words and details to convey more precise framings.
Inventing New Terms: Creating jargon or neologisms to encapsulate complex concepts succinctly.
Impact on Thought:
Language influences our thought processes, even when we are alone. It can constrain our thinking but also enables sharing and expanding knowledge.
The necessity of explaining our thoughts to others can shape how we think, keeping us within the bounds of shared language.
Relativism and Compromise:
Different people have different purposes and contexts, making it challenging to achieve perfect communication. Compromises are inevitable.
Why Language Matters Despite Its Limitations:
Language allows for exchanging ideas and collective problem-solving, even though it introduces inefficiencies and data loss.
Key Quotes
On the Nature of Mental Models: "A model is a system that predicts the future. It predicts only a small subset of the future, and it comes with a good deal of uncertainty, but it's an invaluable tool for any living organism."
On the FFHL: "One problem is that language, whatever its form, comes with its own framing built in, what I call the Fundamental Framing of Human Language (FFHL)."
On Communication Challenges: "What are the chances that the people you're talking or writing to have the same purpose as you, at the same exact time? Scant, the chances are."
On Increasing Resolution: "Words are cheap, so when the first few aren't enough to approximate the framings inside our heads, we can always add more words after them to increase the resolution."
On Thought Language: "For one thing, it's unclear how much one's 'thought language' (the language one uses inside their head) affects the way we think and forces us into predetermined patterns of thought."
Why It Matters
The article highlights the intrinsic limitations of language in accurately conveying thoughts and emotions. This understanding is crucial for improving communication in personal interactions, education, or professional settings. Recognizing the bottlenecks and devising strategies to mitigate them can lead to more effective and nuanced exchanges of ideas. Additionally, exploring how language shapes our thinking can inform cognitive science, linguistics, and artificial intelligence research, providing insights into how we can better model and replicate human thought processes.
Software Projects Will Be Late - Aether Mug
The article "Software Projects Will Be Late" by Marco Giancotti, published on February 29, 2024, discusses the inherent difficulties of estimating software project timelines. Giancotti draws on his extensive experience in software engineering and product management to explain why software projects run late. He argues that software development's unpredictable and novel nature makes precise time estimations nearly impossible. The article also discusses how the Agile methodology can help manage these uncertainties but stresses that its success depends on the buy-in from both engineers and project sponsors.
Key Points
Inherent Uncertainty in Software Development:
Nature of Work: Unlike other engineering disciplines, software development involves solving unique, non-repeatable problems.
Optimism in Estimates: Programmers underestimate the time required due to inherent optimism about solving unknown problems.
Misconceptions About Software Estimation:
Comparison to Other Engineering Fields: Unlike construction or manufacturing, software tasks cannot be easily predicted or repeated.
Fred Brooks’ Insights: Brooks’ Law states that adding manpower to a late software project makes it later due to the increased need for coordination.
Challenges of Reuse in Software:
Instant Reuse: Copying and pasting code solutions is quick, but the remaining work involves novel challenges that are difficult to estimate.
Design vs. Construction: Giancotti likens software development to designing a bridge rather than constructing it, emphasizing the unknowns in design.
Agile Methodology:
Core Values: Agile focuses on adaptability, emphasizing individuals and interactions, working software, customer collaboration, and responding to change.
Implementation Challenges: Agile can fail if project sponsors do not fully embrace its principles, particularly the need for flexibility and iterative planning.
Practical Implications:
Realistic Expectations: Project sponsors need to understand the unpredictable nature of software development and set realistic expectations.
Managing Delays: Embracing Agile principles can help mitigate the impact of delays, making them less detrimental to the overall project.
Key Quotes
On the Nature of Software Projects: "Software projects will be late, because of their very nature."
On Fred Brooks’ Insights: "Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later."
On Software Development vs. Other Engineering Fields: "You should think of software work as equivalent not to the construction of a bridge, but to its design."
On Agile Methodology: "Agile is all about improvisation and trial and error. It's about being good at orienting yourself in the wilderness rather than following a map that doesn't exist."
On Project Sponsors' Role: "If the sponsors of a project keep on asking for calendarized roadmaps and Gantt charts, it will all be for nothing."
Why It Matters
Understanding software development's inherent uncertainties is crucial for engineers and project sponsors. This awareness can lead to more realistic planning and expectations, reducing frustration and conflict. Embracing Agile methodologies can help teams adapt to changes and uncertainties, leading to more successful project outcomes. However, for Agile to be effective, it requires the commitment of all stakeholders, not just the engineering team. This article sheds light on the systemic issues that lead to project delays and offers a framework for managing them, which is vital for successfully executing software projects.
Lateral Thinking: examples of creative solutions (fponzi.me)
Federico Ponzi's blog post titled "Lateral Thinking: examples of creative solutions," published on April 30, 2024, explores a variety of ingenious solutions to problems that showcase lateral thinking—a method of problem-solving using an indirect and creative approach. The article compiles examples from various domains, including software engineering, security, gaming, and non-technical fields, demonstrating how unconventional thinking can lead to effective and often surprising solutions. Ponzi emphasizes the importance of understanding problems deeply before arriving at innovative solutions and invites readers to contribute their examples of lateral thinking.Key Points
Memory Leak Solution:
Problem: Software on missiles experiencing memory leaks.
Solution: Calculate the memory leak rate and add sufficient RAM to sustain operation until the target is hit.
Significance: Shows a practical and cost-effective approach to a potentially complex debugging issue.
Account Deletion Shortcut:
Problem: Difficulty in deleting accounts due to company-imposed hurdles.
Solution: Post content that violates company policies to get the account deleted quickly.
Significance: Highlights a user's clever way to bypass frustrating service limitations.
DNS Security Enhancement:
Problem: DNS transaction IDs are susceptible to forgery.
Solution: Randomly flip the capitalization of letters in DNS queries to increase entropy.
Significance: Enhances security without requiring a protocol overhaul.
Nintendo Copy Protection:
Problem: Unlicensed game cartridges for Game Boy.
Solution: Use a logo check to halt the execution of unlicensed games.
Significance: Simplifies copyright enforcement without additional hardware.
Spam Email Mitigation:
Problem: Overwhelming spam emails.
Solution: Require senders to solve a computational problem before emails are accepted.
Significance: Conceptual precursor to Proof of Work, improving email filtering.
Website Access Control:
Problem: Differentiating bots from real users.
Solution: Implement captchas that contribute to data projects like Google’s Recaptcha.
Significance: Utilizes user input for productive tasks while ensuring security.
Efficient Fluorescent Lamps:
Problem: Slow warm-up time of fluorescent lamps.
Solution: Integrate an incandescent bulb to provide initial light and warm the lamp faster.
Significance: Improves user experience and efficiency of lighting solutions.
Amazon Mechanical Turk:
Problem: Lack of training data for machine learning models.
Solution: Use Mechanical Turk to tag data, aiding model development manually.
Significance: Demonstrates a practical approach to bootstrap AI training.
Game Boy Screen Mirroring:
Problem: No native video output for screen mirroring.
Solution: Create a cartridge that transmits data to an emulator.
Significance: Provides a non-invasive method to achieve screen mirroring.
Timekeeping with AC Frequency:
Problem: Need for accurate timekeeping in devices.
Solution: Utilize the frequency of alternating current as a time source.
Significance: Offers a cost-effective alternative to crystal oscillators.
Constant Work in Web Services:
Problem: Variable load per request in web services.
Solution: Ensure each request requires a constant amount of effort.
Significance: Predictable performance under varying loads.
Lavarand:
Problem: Need for unpredictable random numbers in cryptography.
Solution: Use lava lamps as a source of randomness.
Significance: Adds a layer of unpredictability to cryptographic processes.
Non-technical Solutions:
Deploying Cats: Used by the UK’s Royal Air Force to combat rat infestations.
Baggage Claim Wait Time: Houston Airport reduced perceived wait time by increasing walking distance to baggage claim.
Key Quotes
"Lateral thinking is a manner of solving problems using an indirect and creative approach via reasoning that is not immediately obvious."
"I like to think that problems are what's most worth obsessing on, and that the solution usually follows easily from a good understanding of a problem."
"If the alternative solution seemed creative, then I had it included here."
A framework for creating value | caldito.me
In the blog post "A framework for creating value," published on April 30, 2024, Caldito outlines a structured approach to value creation for knowledge workers, particularly in the technology sector. The framework is divided into three key steps: Learning, Generating New Knowledge (or Problem Identifying), and Extracting Value from the Knowledge (or Problem-Solving). Each step involves specific knowledge and skills that contribute to creating value within an organization or market. The framework is intended to help individuals identify and address potential bottlenecks in their value-creation process and serve as a personal and professional development guide.
Key Points
Step 1: Learning
Importance of Learning: Essential for acquiring the knowledge and skills needed for subsequent steps.
Types of Knowledge:
Awareness of gaps in knowledge.
Concepts and facts as foundational premises.
Contextual understanding of current states and historical developments.
Types of Skills:
Analytical skills for deriving conclusions.
Hard skills specific to jobs or expertise areas.
Soft skills for team interaction and influence.
Step 2: Generating New Knowledge (or Problem Identifying)
Analyzing Existing Knowledge: To derive new insights or identify problems.
Value of New Knowledge: This can be distilled into actionable value.
Step 3: Extracting Value out of the Knowledge (or Problem-Solving)
Methods of Extraction:
Using hard skills to solve problems.
Leveraging soft skills to engage and mobilize people.
Combining Skills: Creates the most significant impact by addressing problems and garnering support for solutions.
Application of the Framework
Streamlined Process: Helps visualize and assess the value creation process.
Identifying Weak Spots: Points out neglect or imbalance between knowledge and skills.
Fundamental Skills: The core reading, thinking, and writing activities support each phase.
Reading: what you consume is food for your thinking. You need to consume enough good quality knowledge. With books, you can learn deeply about topics you are not well versed in yet.
Thinking: reflecting on some matter. It’s the simplest form of analysis and something we always do. Thinking deeply will allow us to find novel insights that are useful to us and others.
Writing is the most basic form of extracting value. Once knowledge or a solution to a problem is written comprehensibly, it can be useful to others.
Key Quotes
On Learning:
"Learning is food for our knowledge and skills, which are needed in the next 2 steps."
"Knowledge is the starting point, and by applying certain skills to it, we’ll later get new knowledge or extract value out of knowledge."
On Generating New Knowledge:
"Analyzing our current knowledge to get new one. I also consider identifying problems in the world or company as new knowledge."
On Extracting Value:
"Combining both [hard and soft skills] will reach the biggest impact. Only sharing new knowledge is teaching, and solutions that don’t get consensus of other people don’t get very far or are solutions to small problems."
On the Framework's Purpose:
"The framework above can help you assess your value creation process. Thinking of it as a streamlined process with clear steps can help you."
Why It Matters
The framework presented by Caldito is significant because it provides a structured approach to value creation that can be applied across various fields, particularly in technology. By breaking down the process into clear, actionable steps, individuals can more effectively identify their strengths and areas for improvement. This methodical approach can enhance personal and organizational productivity, ensuring that efforts are aligned with creating meaningful value. Additionally, the emphasis on combining hard and soft skills highlights the importance of a holistic skill set in achieving the highest impact, making the framework a valuable tool for professional development and strategic planning.
A Few Short Stories · Collab Fund
In the blog post "A Few Short Stories," published on April 30, 2024, Morgan Housel shares a series of vignettes illustrating various insights about human behavior, risk, and progress. Through these stories, Housel explores themes such as the inertia of social norms, the dual nature of success and forewarning, the power of incentives, the unpredictability of irrational trends, the universality of risk, the complexities of achieving long-held goals, the potential for future societal blind spots, the fleeting nature of satisfaction, and the unique mindsets of exceptional individuals. Each story serves as a micro-lesson in understanding how humans navigate the complex interplay of motivation, risk, and change.
Key Points
The inertia of Social Norms
Context: Despite the proven effectiveness of seat belts introduced by Ford in 1955, widespread adoption took nearly half a century.
Insight: Social norms significantly delay the adoption of beneficial changes.
Dual Nature of Success and Forewarning
Context: The Dunkirk evacuation during WWII demonstrated a miraculous success and a cautionary tale about potential German capabilities.
Insight: Success can simultaneously reveal vulnerabilities, highlighting the importance of continuous vigilance.
Power of Incentives
Context: Notorious BIG’s early life choices were heavily influenced by immediate financial incentives.
Insight: Incentives drive behavior, often leading people to make surprising decisions.
Unpredictability of Irrational Trends
Context: Barack Obama’s friend, George Haywood, correctly predicted the housing market collapse but couldn’t sustain his short position due to irrational market trends.
Insight: Irrational trends can persist longer than expected, defying logical timelines.
Universality of Risk
Context: The Scots’ plan to attack England during the Black Death backfired when the pandemic struck their troops.
Insight: No one is immune to risk; overconfidence can lead to unexpected consequences.
Complexities of Achieving Goals
Context: A woman, blind since childhood, became anxious and depressed after regaining sight due to the overwhelming societal expectations that followed.
Insight: Achieving a long-desired goal can bring unforeseen challenges and pressures.
Future Societal Blind Spots
Context: Historian John Meecham highlights the likelihood that future generations will condemn current societal practices.
Insight: We should recognize potential blind spots and injustices in our actions.
Fleeting Nature of Satisfaction
Context: Astronauts from the Apollo missions felt underwhelmed after walking on the moon despite the monumental achievement.
Insight: The thrill of anticipation often outweighs the experience as the mind quickly moves on to new goals.
Unique Mindsets of Exceptional Individuals
Context: Mathematician John Nash, despite his brilliance, believed in alien communications, showing the overlap between genius and eccentricity.
Insight: Highly talented individuals often think uniquely, encompassing extraordinary insights and unconventional beliefs.
Key Quotes
On Social Norms:
"It’s easy to underestimate how social norms stall change, even when the change is an obvious improvement."
On Success and Forewarning:
"Dunkirk was both a success and a foreboding."
On Incentives:
"Incentives drive everything, and most of us underestimate what we’d be willing to do if the incentives were right."
On Irrational Trends:
"Irrational trends rarely follow rational timelines. Unsustainable things can last longer than you think."
On Risk:
"False confidence makes the eventual reality all the more shocking."
On Achieving Goals:
"Every goal you dream about has a downside that’s easy to overlook."
On Future Blind Spots:
"What injustices are we perpetuating even now that will one day face the harshest of verdicts by those who come after us?"
On Satisfaction:
"Most mental upside comes from the thrill of anticipation – actual experiences tend to fall flat, and your mind quickly moves on to anticipating the next event."
On Exceptional Minds:
"Unique minds have to be accepted as a full package."
12 Map Happenings that Rocked our World: Part 9 – Map Happenings
The article on Map Happenings explores the revolutionary Etak Navigator, the first practical vehicle navigation system launched in 1985. It delves into the technological breakthroughs that made the Etak Navigator a pioneering product, how it was developed, and the challenges faced by its creators. The article highlights the system's reliance on augmented dead reckoning for positioning before GPS was available and its innovative features like a moving map display and address search. It also touches on the contributions of key figures like Stan Honey and the eventual influence of Etak's innovations on modern navigation systems.
Key Points
Introduction to Etak Navigator:
Launched in 1985, the Etak Navigator was the first practical vehicle navigation system.
It was a groundbreaking product akin to the iPhone in its time.
Technological Innovations:
Augmented Dead Reckoning: Used to correct inertial navigation errors by snapping the vehicle's position back to the road.
Moving Map Display: The vehicle remained at the center of the screen with the map moving around it.
Address Search and Geocoding: Introduced entering a destination by address, street, or intersection.
Components of Etak Navigator:
The vehicle includes a vector CRT display, cassette tape drive, electronic compass, magnetic wheel sensors, and a CPU in the trunk.
Cassette tapes stored both the navigation app and map data.
Challenges and Solutions:
Inertial Navigation Errors: Solved with topological map matching.
Data Storage: Efficient storage on cassette tapes was developed.
Heat Resistance: Developed using polycarbonate cassette tapes.
Inclines and Magnetic Anomalies: Solved with specially designed inclinometers and positioning algorithms.
Development and Production:
Etak digitized maps using an innovative ‘heads up’ digitizing system, a trade secret at the time.
The map production program was run on a single VAX minicomputer.
Legacy and Impact:
The Etak Navigator's technology laid the foundation for modern navigation systems.
Many of Etak's engineers went on to work on influential mapping projects, including Apple Maps.
Key Quotes
"A foundational product that forever changed how everyone on this planet gets to where they need to be."
"The Etak Navigator launched 39 years (!) ago in 1985."
"Etak invented ‘augmented dead reckoning’. This used a process to match the position given by the navigation sensors to a topologically correct electronic map."
"The Etak Navigator was also the first consumer device to introduce the concept of address search, or what the geospatial industry has come to call ‘geocoding’."
Why It Matters
The Etak Navigator represents a significant milestone in the history of navigation technology. Its development marked the transition from paper maps to digital navigation systems, laying the groundwork for the GPS technology we rely on today. The innovations introduced by Etak, such as augmented dead reckoning and moving map displays, are still fundamental to modern navigation systems. Understanding the history and technological advancements of the Etak Navigator provides insight into the evolution of navigation technology and its impact on our daily lives.