#118 Marginal Gains - Part 2
Interesting Stuff from the Internet
Feasibility of keeping Mars warm with nanoparticles | Science Advances
One-third of Mars’ surface has shallow-buried H2O, which is currently too cold for life to use. Proposals to warm Mars using greenhouse gases require a large mass of rare ingredients on Mars’ surface. However, we show here that artificial aerosols made from materials that are readily available on Mars—for example, conductive nanorods that are ~9 micrometers long—could warm Mars >5 × 103 times more effectively than the best gases. Such nanoparticles forward-scatter sunlight and efficiently block upwelling thermal infrared. Like the natural dust of Mars, they are swept high into Mars’ atmosphere, allowing delivery from the near-surface. For a 10-year particle lifetime, two climate models indicate that sustained release at 30 liters per second would globally warm Mars by ≳30 kelvin and start to melt the ice. Therefore, if nanoparticles can be made at scale on (or delivered to) Mars, then the barrier to warming Mars appears to be less high than previously thought.
Warmest ocean temperatures in 400 years threaten Great Barrier Reef (axios.com)
The Great Barrier Reef in Australia is experiencing record-breaking ocean temperatures, raising serious concerns about another devastating coral bleaching event. July 2024 saw the highest monthly sea surface temperatures in the reef's waters since record-keeping began in 1900. These extreme temperatures stress corals, causing them to expel the algae living in their tissues, turning them white and making them more susceptible to disease and death. This situation follows a mass bleaching event in 2022 and raises alarm bells for the long-term health and resilience of this globally significant ecosystem.
New MSU study: Fewer people want to stand out in public | MSUToday | Michigan State University
A new study from Michigan State University reveals that people's desire to stand out or be unique has significantly declined over the past two decades. Analyzing data from over a million individuals, researchers found a decrease in all three dimensions of uniqueness: concern for others' reactions, willingness to break the rules, and willingness to defend beliefs publicly. The most dramatic decline was observed in the willingness to defend beliefs publicly, suggesting a growing fear of social ostracism or "cancelation." This trend has significant societal implications, as it could stifle dissent, limit diverse perspectives, and hinder progress.
Snippets from the Newsletters/ Newspapers/ Books
Bloomberg:
The first is the ability to tweak the genetic codes of organisms, which can make it possible to, say, resurrect an extinct virus related to smallpox. Couple that with advances in computational biology and “cloud labs” — which allow scientists to simulate experiments online or run them remotely through software that coordinates with robots — and it’s now far easier for bad actors to develop weapons of mass destruction quickly and cheaply without access to traditional lab infrastructure. And tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT make it easier to surface insights on harmful viruses, bacteria and other organisms than what’s traditionally been possible with existing search tools.
Here are Noah Smith’s Three Rules for Writing About the Stock Market:
Nobody really knows why stocks go up or down, even though everyone pretends to know.
By the time you write about a stock price movement, whatever happened is already fully priced in. So stocks are just as likely to bounce back as they are to keep moving in the same direction.
Stocks go up and down a lot, so you should zoom out to get perspective on how important a stock price movement really is.
James Cameron has something he calls the “creativity law of thermodynamics.”
He says: “Before you can radiate, you need to absorb.”
WSJ:
According to readily available data from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, 58% of U.S. households own stock either directly, or through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds or other pools of investments.
New labor force participation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that 43.6% of US 16-19 year-olds were working or seeking employment in July, up from 33.8% in January. However, while that seasonal spike is observed annually, Gen Z have started to gently reverse the overall decline in the share of working teens seen in the past 2 decades... the source of much “kids these days don’t work like they used to” discourse.
S&P 500 CEOs make 268 times more than their employees, on average.
“So compelling is the evidence of our own eyes and ears, so swift is your mind to assume your own version of the story, that one of the hardest things in this world is to understand there’s another way of seeing things.” - This Is Happiness, Niall Williams, 2019
The percentage of 19-year-olds with a driver’s license dropped steadily from 87.3% in 1983 to 68.7% in 2022, according to most recent data from the Federal Highway Administration.
Sharp End of the System
The fallacy of social redundancy refers to the mistaken belief that having more people involved in a task or decision-making process will necessarily lead to better outcomes or increased safety. This fallacy is often seen in complex systems, including those at the "sharp end," where front-line operators work. Here are a few key points about the fallacy of social redundancy:
- Overconfidence in Numbers: Having more people involved does not guarantee that all aspects of a situation will be covered or critical tasks will be completed.
- Diffusion of Responsibility: With more people involved, there can be a tendency for individuals to assume that someone else will handle a particular task, leading to important actions being overlooked.
- Communication Breakdowns: Increased numbers can complicate communication, leading to misunderstandings, delays, or even omissions of crucial information.
- Groupthink: Larger groups may be more susceptible to groupthink, in which the desire for harmony or conformity results in irrational or dysfunctional decision-making.
To mitigate the fallacy of social redundancy, it's important to have clear roles and responsibilities, effective communication protocols, and a system that encourages individual accountability and critical thinking.
The Mississippi River paradox | Seth's Blog (seths.blog)
There’s no water in that river that was there ten years ago.
The boundaries have shifted in that time as well, there’s no riverbank that’s exactly where it was. And the silt and the fish have all moved too.
So, what’s “the Mississippi River”?
It’s a label, a placeholder, and a marker–when the Mississippi does something we don’t expect it to do, we comment on it.
People are like this as well. What if you could only be known for the best (or the worst) thing you ever did? You’re not that person now, and it’s likely you’ll never be that person again. But that’s the label we gave you.
When we talk about the organization or the brand or that neighbor down the street, we act as these are immutable objects, basic unchanging elements or static facts.
But like rivers, people change.
When the label stops being useful, we should change it. The problem with holding a grudge is that it makes your hands too full to do anything useful.
CNN
Dutch startup Elysian is challenging that assumption with its plans for a fully electric regional aircraft, with a range of 500 miles (805 kilometers) and space for 90 passengers, capable of reducing emissions by 90% — which it aims to fly commercially within a decade. The E9X will be designed to fit within current airport infrastructure, without the need for any adjustment or upgrade. The turnaround time, however, might be a challenge due to the need to charge the batteries, which takes more time than filling up the tank with fuel. “Our target right now is a maximum charging time of 45 minutes, which would imply a slightly longer turnaround time than what some airlines are used to, especially the low-cost operators. But that’s the upper limit — the average time will be around half an hour.”
“The fates lead him who will; him who won’t they drag.” - Seneca
Those who willingly accept and work with their fate will be "led" by it, while those who resist will be "dragged" along unwillingly.
